Home / Poker News November 2009 / A WSOP November Nine betting preview
A WSOP November Nine betting preview
Posted by: James Carter. - Sun, 2009-11-08 10:57
If you’re looking for a truly comprehensive November Nine preview, you should head on down to the bookie, or log on to your online sportsbook and take a look at the lines offered there. Various experts and online poker industry insiders can offer you reviews and predictions of their own, but the wisdom of the masses is only truly reflected by the odds featured at your bookmaker.
Apparently, if one is to believe the various sportsbooks which are all rooting against Phil Ivey, the masses have spoken, and they have pointed to a clear winner: Phil Ivey. There is so much square money coming in on Ivey that the sportsbooks can no longer balance the bet and they’re forced to cover the Ivey wagers from their own pockets. This has put them in a painfully exposed position, where they stand to lose millions of dollars provided the
Full Tilt professional does manage to catch up and to eventually take the title. The lines offered by the books reflect this situation perfectly. If you’re now scrambling to get your dough in on him, you’ll be doing it on a $6 line. Those who bet on him early, before the
WSOP Main Event kicked off, got $176. As Ivey made his way towards the final table, the deal on him began to turn sour, although at $101 it was still quite a bit better than the current $6 one.
The good news for the bookies is that statistically speaking, Ivey stands a relatively slim chance for winning the big one. This makes all bets on him sucker bets, regardless of how good a deal one struck by placing his wager earlier. Ivey starts at just about 40 BBs (he has 9,765,000 chips compared to Darwin Moon’s 58,930,000), and even though he is not the short-stack, his chances of clawing his way back into the battle and eventually surviving everyone else at the table stand at about 5% (the percentage of final table chips he currently possesses). Even if one is to factor in his skills, and to do so generously, the bet still remains a sucker bet.
The weird thing is, because of Ivey’s popularity, the value is now on Darwin Moon. It’s not often that you get value on the favorite, but this one is one of those rare opportunities.
